It had to happen sometime: after several years of stratospheric growth, the Chinese vehicle industry has come back to earth with a bump – and found itself facing a grim reality of weak demand and cut-throat competition that could persist well into the future.

Even before the western financial world imploded – stoking fears of a global recession that has chilled the hearts of car buyers, even in faraway China – industry analysts were expecting a slowdown in Chinese car sales this year. But by that, they meant 15 or 20 per cent growth (down from 34 per cent in 2006 and 24 per cent last year) – not low single-digits this year, and flat sales next year, as predicted recently by JD Power, the auto consultancy.

Chinese car industry growth had defied gravity for so long – rising from only 5,000 cars in 1980 to 5.8m forecast for 2008, making it the world's second largest auto market – that it was hard to imagine anything could cause such a hard landing. But that was before the credit crisis.

In many ways, Chinese car buyers ought to have been well insulated from the crisis: according to Mike Dunne of JD Power in Shanghai, 93 per cent of car purchases are still made with cash. But Li Shufu, chairman of Geely, one of China's largest automakers, says the effect is predominantly psychological. “If consumers think the global economic situation is bad, they also think maybe prices will fall,” and they stop buying cars, he told the Financial Times recently in an interview. In China, no one wants to buy a car until the price is as low as possible.

But China's car industry was already highly competitive, even before the threat of further price declines. According to Dieter Seemann, commercial executive director of Shanghai Volkswagen, one of VW's two carmaking joint ventures, China has 81 automotive brands compared with 47 in the US – the world's largest car market – and 45 carmakers compared to 15 in the US. VW says prices fell by a staggering 37 per cent from 2001 to 2007, and forecasts further price erosion of 8 per cent from 2008 to 2010. In the short term, says Joseph Liu, General Motors' Asia-Pacific head of sales and marketing, “everyone will suffer”.

But the medium- to long-term forecast is more cheerful. Nick Reilly, head of Asia-Pacific operations for GM, says market fundamentals remain strong. GM is still forecasting 10 per cent growth for this year and as much or more for next. “I don't see this as the start of a significant decline,” he says.

Jeffrey Shen, president of Changan Ford Mazda, one of Ford's Chinese joint ventures, says: “We see this as a short-term adjustment. Long term the [growth] trend in the Chinese automotive industry will continue.” Ford believes that when per capita GDP reaches $6,000, the industry will boom and car-buying “will get into every family”, Mr Shen says.

Ford acknowledges that car sales in China's richer, more export-focused east and south have slowed, but says sales in the interior are beginning to take up the slack – as China has shifted manufacturing production to cheaper regions.

In the longer term, one basic fact remains paramount: only 20 out of 1,000 people in China own a car (compared with roughly 500 per 1,000 in the US and EU). That fundamental fact will drive the industry for many years to come.

Most industry forces expect the Chinese government to stimulate demand in the short term, as a way of propping up the economy in difficult times. “The car industry can serve as a cushion for the overall economy,” a senior official of Changan Motors, a large state-owned automaker, said recently. But in the longer term, Beijing's ambitions are much grander.

China knows it missed out on decades of automotive technology, because of its Communist past. Now Beijing plans to leapfrog that gap to a new greener future: One plug-in hybrid electric car is expected on the Chinese market within weeks, from BYD, the upstart Shenzhen battery manufacturer that recently rose from nothing to become the biggest-selling Chinese auto maker. And nearly all of China's other leading auto companies say they are working on alternative fuel vehicles. They are counting on backing from Beijing – which has said that 10 per cent of China's cars must run on alternative fuels by 2012 – for everything from tax breaks to the massive infrastructure of charging stations needed for electric cars.

China's peculiar brand of authoritarian semi-capitalism could even give Beijing an advantage in the battle, says Paul Gao, author of a recent McKinsey report on electric cars: democracies need to consult on such things as electric vehicles; but Beijing could just decide to support the technology, and it would happen.

 “In China things can happen very fast, or very slowly,” says Mr Liu of GM. If the past is any guide, change in the Chinese car industry will be fast-forward.

这种情况注定会在某个时候出现：经过数年的超高速增长后，中国汽车业猛然间跌回现实——并发觉自己正面对需求疲软、竞争白热化的严峻现实，而这种情况可能会在今后持续很长时间。

西方金融界的崩溃引发了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧，购车意愿已经冷却，即使是在遥远的中国。但在这场崩溃出现之前，业内分析人士就已预料到今年中国汽车销售将会放缓。不过，他们所谓的放缓是指汽车销量增长15%或20%（低于2006年的34%和去年的24%）。而汽车咨询公司JD Power近期则预测，今年销量增幅将是较低的个位数，而明年销量将与今年持平。

中国汽车业长期以来都以火箭般的速度增长——销量从1980年的区区5000辆升至2008年的580万辆（预测值），中国由此成为全球第二大汽车市场——这让人们难以想象会有什么因素引发上述硬着陆。但是，这是在信贷危机爆发之前的事。

从很多方面来说，这场危机对中国购车者的影响都应是微乎其微的：JD Power驻上海的迈克尔•邓恩(Mike Dunne)表示，中国93%的购车者仍以全现金支付。但中国最大的汽车制造商之一、吉利集团(Geely)的董事长李书福表示，影响主要是心理上的。他在近期接受英国《金融时报》采访时称：“如果消费者认为全球经济形势不好，他们就会认为车价可能要下降，”并停止买车。在中国，在车价降到不能再降之前，不会有人想买车。

然而，在车价进一步下滑的威胁出现之前，中国汽车业就已经处于高度竞争状态。大众汽车(VW)两家合资汽车制造企业之一、上海大众(Shanghai Volkswagen)的商务执行经理迪特尔•塞曼(Dieter Seemann)表示，中国拥有81个汽车品牌和45家汽车制造商，与之相比，美国这个全球最大的汽车市场拥有47个汽车品牌和15家汽车制造商。大众汽车表示，2001年至2007年，车价的降幅达到了惊人的37%。该公司预计，从2008年至2010年，车价将进一步下降8%。通用汽车(General Motors)亚太销售和营销主管刘曰海(Joseph Liu)表示，短期内，“大家的日子都不会好过。”

但是，中长期预测却更为乐观。通用汽车亚太业务主管尼克•赖利(Nick Reilly)表示，市场基本面依然强劲。通用汽车仍预计今年销量将增长10%，明年销量增幅与今年相当或者更高。他说：“我不认为销量会就此大幅下滑。”

福特(Ford)在中国的合资企业之一、长安福特马自达(Changan Ford Mazda)的总裁沈英铨(Jeffrey Shen)称：“我们认为这是短期调整。中国汽车业的长期（增长）趋势将会持续。”他表示，福特认为，当中国人均国内生产总值(GDP)达到6000美元时，汽车业将会兴旺发达，“家家户户都会”买车。

福特坦承，在更富裕、更以出口为重心的华东和华南地区，汽车销售已经放缓。不过该公司表示，随着中国将制造生产活动移至成本更低的地区，内陆地区的汽车销售正开始弥补缺口。

长远来看，有一项基本事实依然至关重要：每1000个中国人中，只有20人有车（与之相比，美国和欧盟1000个人中大约有500人有车）。这一基本事实将在未来许多年内推动中国汽车业发展。

多数业内权威人士预料，中国政府在短期内将刺激需求，作为在困难时期支撑经济的一项措施。国有大型汽车公司长安汽车(Changan Motors)一位高管最近表示：“汽车业可作为整体经济的一个缓冲器。”不过长远来看，北京的雄心可要宏伟得多。

中国知道，本国汽车技术已因过去的封闭岁月而落后了几十年。现在，北京打算跳过这段空白，进入一个更为环保的新阶段：一款插电式(plug-in)油电混合动力车将于数周内在中国面市，它来自比亚迪(BYD)——这家新崛起的深圳电池制造商近来从零成长为中国销量最大的汽车制造商。中国其它主要的汽车企业也几乎全都表示，它们正致力于开发使用替代燃料的汽车。它们正指望从北京获得一切支持，从税收优惠到大规模建设电动汽车充电站。北京已表示，到2012年，中国使用替代燃料的汽车要达到10%。

麦肯锡(McKinsey)近期一份电动汽车报告的作者高旭(Paul Gao)表示，中国特有的“威权式半资本主义”甚至会让北京在这场战役中获得一项优势：在民主国家，人们需要在电动汽车这类事情上展开协商；而北京只要决定支持这项技术，这项技术就会获得发展。

通用汽车的刘曰海表示：“在中国，事情可能进展得很快，也可能进展得很慢。”如果说历史能给我们什么启示的话，那么中国汽车业必将快速向前发展。